My Oscars 2025 Best Picture Power Ranking
In a race filled with scandals, controversy and no clear front-runner, which 2024 movie will come out on top?
The few months between the end of a year and its Oscars ceremony can be both frustratingly long and painstakingly stressful for the average cinephile. You ask yourself: What movies should I watch? Which ones do I skip? Did the Academy just forget about the first half of the year? How have I not heard of at least ONE of these documentaries?
As 2024 finally wrapped up, these questions seemed even harder to answer than usual. From the contentious use of AI for certain edits to some truly heinous Tweets, some of the year’s biggest hits have become entrenched in controversy and, in turn, have fallen to the bottom of the ranks. In honor of the academy’s “ranked choice” voting, I figured I would share my predictions for the biggest award of the night via my own ranking of the likelihood I think each film has of winning.
Disclaimer: This is not my personal top ten list, though I will be including my thoughts and rating on each one. Enjoy!
10. The Substance
This movie is the sole reason I needed to establish up front the difference between this list and my top ten favorites. If I had my way, this beautifully revolting masterpiece would be number one. Unfortunately, the academy is barely comfortable nodding to this type of niche entertainment, let alone giving it any trophies, so I’m simply grateful this one made it into the conversation at all. Not to mention, Demi Moore is currently looking like the front-runner for “Best Actress”, so that still counts as a win in my book.
9. Dune: Part Two
We remain in genre-film Oscar purgatory with a movie that shook the world upon its release, but has been cast aside due to the Oscar’s usual favoritism towards grounded dramas and movies that came out when most audiences couldn’t see them. It’s a shame too, because it seemed for a while like the sci-fi sequel had united fans and critics alike as a crowd-pleasing cinematic achievement that had a chance of going all the way. Unfortunately, the questionable exclusion of Denis Villeneuve in the Best Director category seems to have been the final nail in the coffin.
8. Emilia Perez
First things first…fuck this movie. Okay, now that I’ve gotten that off my chest, the truth is that, despite clumsy handling of marginalized perspectives, the ugly bigotry of lead Karla Sofía Gascón, and the downright confusion from the masses surrounding its hype in precursor awards, this movie isn’t a total trainwreck. In fact, if isolated from the outside drama and Oscar campaign, this would merely be a weird but relatively charming and harmless failure. As it stands, however, it’s become the official super-villain of this year’s ceremony, whose creative team has thankfully shot itself in the foot enough times to count it out as a true powerhouse in the race. Please don’t take this personally, Zoe Saldana. We still love you.
7. Wicked
Let’s be clear. I had A LOT of fun with this movie, and so did millions of others worldwide. But I can’t help but feel like this nom was fueled by the desperation to expand Oscar viewership and earn the academy “cool points”. Regardless, its power as a cultural phenomenon is undeniable, and it’ll be worth it for the chance to see Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo be the dynamic duo we’ve grown to love on the night of the awards. This is the last one on the list I think really doesn’t stand a chance of bringing home “Best Picture”, but I’m happy to see it here.
6. Conclave
To be honest, my lifelong allergy to pope movies got the best of me and I have yet to see this one. I’ve heard the cinematography and performances are both highlights, so I’ll probably suck it up and check it out soon. While the buzz its received over the past few months is mostly positive, it doesn’t seem quite strong enough to get the film all the way to the top. In a year like this one, though, anything is possible.
5. A Complete Unknown
This is a perfectly fine and competently made montage of reenacted Bob Dylan concerts with exquisite period detail and some stellar performances. In other words, it’s this year’s Bohemian Rhapsody, only a lot better. In a normal year, I’d say it’s likely to only get Chalamet a “Best Actor” trophy and nothing else, but in a year so up in the air, there’s a chance it goes even further.
4. The Brutalist
This movie is a staggering and breathtaking epic in its first half and a mystifying and somewhat frustrating meditation on legacy in the second. I’m still torn on whether or not the third act worked for me, but I was nonetheless amazed by the scope and craft on display in every frame. It strikes a fine balance between checking enough “Oscar bait” boxes while also being its own singular vision, which makes it a formidable contender. The discussion of AI used to design a briefly shown blueprint, and to correct some Bulgarian pronunciation in a voiceover, briefly threatened its campaign, but Adrian Brody’s performance and Brady Corbet’s vivid realization of his distinct vision keep it in the conversation for top prize.
3. I’m Still Here
This is another one I have yet to see, but its surprise appearance as a “Best Picture” nom along with the overwhelmingly positive reaction to said appearance make it an instant force to be reckoned with. Given the recent and refreshing consideration the academy has given international cinema as of late, there’s not a lot holding this one back from potentially pulling an upset over its more high-profile US counterparts.
2. Nickel Boys
Ok, this is the last one I haven’t seen on here. I promise. However, I’ve read enough reviews to have a rough idea of the beauty and poignancy it represents, and I can’t wait to finally experience it for myself. It seems to have a great track record with fans and critics alike, and is one the few entries here that is free from any major controversy. I suppose if it wins, then I’ll really be out of excuses for not seeing it.
1. Anora
Aside from The Substance, this is easily my favorite movie on the list, and I’m pleased to say I think it also has the strongest chance of getting top prize at the Oscars. Sean Baker has done a brilliant job of stacking his resume full of endlessly watchable and unflinchingly honest looks at people on the fringes of society, and Anora not only appears to be his official mainstream breakout, but a culmination of all his hard work over the years. Just like the rest of his films, Baker (with the help of the incredibly talented Mikey Madison) brings the title character to life with equal parts rough edges and empathy. Madison and the pitch-perfect supporting cast all have their moments to shine as the story unfolds into a uniquely brilliant train wreck. Honestly, its really hard to imagine anyone seeing this and not being won over by the journey.